Toy Industry: Bleak Forecast 2009
January 2009
In 2008 the toy industry and indeed everybody had to endure the worst holiday sales season since 1992. This was truly an awful year where both comparative sales and total sales were down sharply for most retailers. In some recent years we have seen weak comparative store data even though total sales were fairly strong. I’ve always argued that comp store sales is a flawed indicator because it fails to take into account the cannibalization of sales that occurs as large retailers continue to build more and more stores closer and closer together. Read full article
Bleak Times: Will Walmart Steal the Silver Lining in 2009
November 2008
The Dallas Toy Show began amidst the throes of the credit crisis. The stock market was plunging on a daily basis while the economy was having a severe heart attack. No wonder then, that most people’s attitude was initially, to put it mildly, trepidatious. The Christmas sell through season was looking bleak. Retailers had been reluctant to make large inventory bets and everyone from retailers to toy companies to Asian manufacturers were having difficulty obtaining the capital necessary to fund operations. Read full article
Toyjobs Files Suit Against A-Ha Toys
October 2008
Toy industry recruiter Toyjobs has filed suit in the Superior Court of New Jersey against A-Ha Toys, Inc. and its president Ivars Sondors. The complaint lists breach of contract, unjust enrichment, fraud and various other allegations. Read full article
It's Crunch Time in the Toy Industry
August 2008
The annual summer doldrums for the economy at large and the toy industry in particular are beginning to come to a close. Toyjobs’ fast first half start which had us on track to have our best year ever fell off precipitously in late June, July and early August. Both search starts and search closes slowed to a crawl. However, just over the past week I have noticed that things have begun to pick up. Suddenly we are having a lot of discussions about new search starts and should be beginning a number of new searches shortly. All of this is pretty predictable and is part of the annual hiring cycle for toy company jobs. Same as it ever was.
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Caution Remains the Word of the Day
June 2008
Although it appears that we are not technically in recession and first quarter GDP numbers were actually revised upward, caution remains the word of the day. Overall retail sales rose in April and again in May but the main beneficiaries were deep discounters like Wal-Mart and Costco while higher priced stores had a difficult time. It seems that the Bush administration’s stimulus plan has had a positive short term effect but those $600 dollar checks will be long gone by September and the beginning of the holiday sales season. Read full article
Toyjobs Takes Off to Its Best Start Ever
April 2008
Toyjobs has gotten off to the fastest start in its twenty-seven year history. Unfortunately, I don’t think that is likely to continue. This is counter to the economic climate and I would certainly agree that there are fewer jobs out there and less toy company hiring. This seems to be what’s going on. Read full article
Toy Fair Outlook - Cautious
March 2008
The February Toy Fair seemed to go pretty well. The Javits Center maintained its world record of having the hardest floors on the planet. I did notice that several mass market companies were not “showing” although some had representatives lurking in the aisles. Mass market companies that grumbled beforehand that this would be their last one all seemed satisfied and said that they would be back. Specialty toy companies were having a field day and seemed to be a much more jovial group. Read full article
Toy Jobs Posts Third Best Year
January 2008
Toyjobs posted its third best year out of twenty-six for 2007. It was a crazy and confusing period. With 2006 being our second best year coupled with 2006 toy sales being up 4 to 5 percent (rather than the usual down 4 or 5%) I figured we would start strong in 2007, but that’s not the way it happened. There were not a lot of toy company jobs available in the early going and in fact our sales were only at about fifty percent of normal through the end of June. Read full article
'Tis the Season for Statistical Confusion
December 2007
It’s time again for the annual swirl of confusing numbers emanating from retailers and Wall Street’s retail analysts. Retail traffic was up on “Black Friday” and the post holiday weekend, but the average consumer spent less, an average of $347 down from $360 a year ago. Read full article
Dallas Toy Show Successful . . . Industry Continues to Stumble
October 2007
Although there was some back hall grumbling that “everyone under one roof” translates to “everyone pays the TIA” it seems that even those who were prepared (hoping) to hate the Dallas Toy Show felt that it was a huge success. Read full article
The Toy Industry Needs Boots On The Ground
August 2007
China is not the only culprit in the recent recalls of everything from toys to toothpaste and a wide variety of other consumer products. Shoddy manufacturing and quality control practices are endemic to the system that provides American consumers with low priced goods. America’s mass market retailers, led by Wal-Mart, drive this by using toys as a loss leader to attract foot traffic into their stores during the holiday shopping season. Read full article
The Return of the Texas Two-Step
May 2007
First of all I would like to thank everyone for the overwhelmingly positive response to my last Toyjobs Executive Monthly article. The only negative comments came during a highly charged Friday afternoon phone call from the TIA Board Chairman. For my part, I also view that response as positive. Read full article |
